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June 30, 2022

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. Equity markets are oversold and US core inflation has likely peaked. This should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022, says Andrew Pease of Russell Investments.

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. We think equity markets are oversold, and believe US core inflation has likely peaked. In our view, this should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022.

April 4, 2022

The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease.

The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease.


Key market themes

February 15, 2022

Inflation volatility is coming says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Inflation volatility is coming says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Inflation is at a 40-year high. Given Ruffer has warned against rising inflation for some time, you might be forgiven for thinking we’ve cracked open the fancy (chocolate-covered) biscuits.

Unfortunately, we cannot rest upon our laurels. Because, ironically, now inflation is perceived as a problem, we can rest assured it will soon appear ‘Transitory’. But appearances can be deceptive.

January 24, 2022

Financial conditions have never been so accommodative says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Financial conditions have never been so accommodative says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Omicron or not, the US economy is booming. The cocktail of pent-up animal spirits, household net worth at all-time highs plus hefty measures of monetary and fiscal stimulus is a potent one. The Atlanta Federal Reserve ‘NowCast’ has US Q4 real GDP at 7%; add 6% CPI inflation and you get a 13% nominal growth rate [1]. The growth picture is similar in Europe and the UK. One would have to go back 50 years to find a similar surge.

January 12, 2022

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

December 11, 2021

Family offices in Asia-Pacific are fostering a newly energised enthusiasm for investments in the $1.9 trillion cryptocurrency market, ahead of European and North American counterparts, buoyed by pandemic-defying increases in wealth over the past 12 months.

Family offices in Asia-Pacific are fostering a newly energised enthusiasm for investments in the $1.9 trillion cryptocurrency market, ahead of European and North American counterparts, buoyed by pandemic-defying increases in wealth over the past 12 months.

October 1, 2021

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

October 1, 2021

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

If there’s one thing investors do know for sure—it’s that bonds and equities can be used in combination to achieve a ‘balanced portfolio’.

At the simplest level, this means building portfolios with some equities for the good times, and bonds for the bad. Typically, in a 60/40 split.

July 12, 2021

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

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