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September 2, 2022

Anyone can be taken in by financial bubbles, says Lauren French of Ruffer LLP; that's why they're so dangerous.

Anyone can be taken in by financial bubbles; that's why they're so dangerous. It’s also why we at Ruffer believe that navigating bubbles – steering the ship safely past the Charybdis of irrational exuberance – is the most important duty we owe to our clients.

August 30, 2022

The ‘Curse of bigness’ is back: wealth and power are once more concentrated in just a handful of companies, says Laetitia East of Ruffer LLP.

The ‘Curse of bigness’ is back: wealth and power are once more concentrated in just a handful of companies [1].

President Theodore Roosevelt was hailed for dismantling the powerful monopolies which emerged from America’s industrial revolution. Does his trustbusting provide a blueprint for what investors can expect from a revitalised antitrust movement on Capitol Hill?

August 22, 2022

This year, the global population surpassed eight billion people. The extraordinary population growth over the past century has relied upon, and been enabled by, the birth of vast industrial farming systems. Food, on aggregate, is plentiful. Yet today, the dual issues of food security and sustainability loom as large as they have done in the post-industrial era. These megatrends present sources of both investment risk and opportunity, says Harry Sevier of Ruffer LLP.

This year, the global population surpassed eight billion people.

The extraordinary population growth over the past century has relied upon, and been enabled by, the birth of vast industrial farming systems. Food, on aggregate, is plentiful. Yet today, the dual issues of food security and sustainability loom as large as they have done in the post-industrial era. These megatrends present sources of both investment risk and opportunity.

July 25, 2022

In this week’s FB Roundup, Shipping billionaire Rodolphe Saade opposes a French windfall tax plan; Zara founder Amancio Ortega buys a luxury New York apartment building for $500 million; and ancient artifacts seized from US billionaire Michael Steinhardt are returned to Italy.

Shipping billionaire Rodolphe Saade opposes French windfall tax plan
Rodolphe Saade, the billionaire head of multi-generational family-owned shipping giant CMA CGM SA, has vocally opposed a plan by French lawmakers to impose a windfall tax on corporate profits to moderate the impact of inflation.

CMA CGM SA, the world’s third-largest container carrier, has seen its profits rise dramatically following strong global demand for consumer goods resulting in shipping rates being raised more than ten-fold during the Covid-19 pandemic.

July 19, 2022

Inflation oscillates: it’s an idea when it’s not about, and a defining feature when it is, says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Inflation oscillates: it’s an idea when it’s not about, and a defining feature when it is. The only other word which comes to mind with similar status is ‘war’. Irrelevant or inexorable – the human mind finds it hard to make a judgement between the two extremes.

July 15, 2022

It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable, says Jamie Dannhauser of Ruffer LLP.

It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable.

This tightening of monetary policy is happening because inflation has returned – with a vengeance. Central banks are lifting short-term interest rates at a brisk pace. But there is an additional danger for liquidation-prone markets: quantitative tightening (QT).

June 30, 2022

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. Equity markets are oversold and US core inflation has likely peaked. This should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022, says Andrew Pease of Russell Investments.

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. We think equity markets are oversold, and believe US core inflation has likely peaked. In our view, this should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022.

June 20, 2022

Investors face one of the most complex market environments in history, says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

Investors face one of the most complex market environments in history.

Simultaneous shifts in the global energy system, geopolitics, demography, technology and much else besides promise a more inflation-prone and volatile world ahead. This brings with it elevated risks, but also potential rewards.

Amidst all the uncertainty, this presentation from Ruffer LLP Investment Director Alexander Chartres will examine what investors can have conviction about.

April 21, 2022

Inflation-linked bonds are a key defence in a world of deepening negative real yields, says Jasmine Yeo, investment manager at Ruffer LLP.

What was the real return on the US ten-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?

Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years [1].

That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 [2].

Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.

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